A beloved national treasure, Hammer enters Week 4 on a major heater: Over the final 10 weeks of last season and through three weeks of this season, he is 26-13 on his NFL best bets, a 67 percent. Here are our Week 4 best bets: Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 43) at Chicago Bears. Dinsick: The Bears’ surprising 3-0 start hasn’t come without drama, as the Week 1 starting quarterback Mitch Trubisky has already lost the confidence of coach Matt Nagy and was benched last week. Nick Foles replaced him and then led a furious comeback victory for.
We all got a bad beat last week, as the Bengals and Eagles worked to a pathetic tie after overtime. The score ended up being 23-23, of course falling 0.5 points shy of the Over I targeted in my safest NFL picks for the week.
I hate ties. Making it even worse was the fact that the Eagles punted with seconds remaining, basically accepting a tie instead of trying to advance the ball for a shot at a win.
The good news is the rest of our NFL locks panned out. The 49ers and Buccaneers dominated, and easily covered their respective point spreads. It gave us a solid 2-1 record on the week, which showed you to the green at your favorite online betting websites.
Let’s do it again in week four, as I break down my week 4 NFL locks.
The Saints are in uncharted territory. They’re 1-2, coming off a tough home loss to the Packers, and are now mild favorites on the road against the Detroit Lions.
Detroit deserves credit for getting a clutch win in Arizona last week, but they really shouldn’t be in this game with the Saints. One of these teams still has legit title aspirations, and it isn’t the Lions.
I expect Detroit to still be pesky here, but the Saints could be getting back to 100% with Michael Thomas potentially due back for this one.
Saints’ WR Michael Thomas (ankle) is eyeing a Week 4 return:https://t.co/kO5Tn65fn1— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 27, 2020
Even if Thomas isn’t back, New Orleans should be able to score at will in this matchup, and their defense can stifle Matthew Stafford and the Lions. I like the Saints to get a much-needed win to get to 2-2, and doing so by four isn’t a reach at all.
Minnesota Vikings (+4) -110
The Vikings and Texans face off this week, and both will be desperate to get their first victory of 2020 as they enter this matchup at 0-3.
I’m not sure anyone expected both of these teams to be winless through three weeks, but here we are. They’re both better than their records indicate, and they should bring it with their season’s hanging in the balance.
Minnesota offers nice value as an interesting upset pick here, while the Over (52 at -110) is also appealing in what figures to be a shootout. However, more than anything, I just anticipate this game being close.
The Over is a fine secondary wager when you note the offense potential and lack of reliable defense. However, I like the Vikings as a potential underdog pick for week four, and the four points they’re getting here feels pretty sturdy at a nice -110 price.
Lastly, we can also probably feel good about the Cardinals covering against the Carolina Panthers. Carolina is getting some credit here, as they’re at home and are coming off a win over the Los Angeles Chargers.
That’s fair, but this is still a pretty average team that doesn’t defend particularly well, and will continue to be without superstar running back, Christian McCaffrey.
Arizona committed too many turnovers in a surprising home loss to the Lions last week, but they’re better than that. I expect Kyler Murray to bounce back and play much cleaner football in an easy win.
The Cards feel like a lock to win and if you really want to go the safe route, you should be able to bet on them with confidence at their -190 price tag at BetOnline. They should cover this four-point spread, though, so getting a little more value with them at -103 to do that seems like the better play.
Philadelphia Eagles (+6) -110
I loved the 49ers last week, but that was against the New York Giants. The 0-3 Eagles seem just as bad on the surface, but they’re far more talented and better coached.
The reality is that the Eagles have the talent to be competitive, but they can’t get out of their own way. They should have won in week one, and they probably shouldn’t have tied the Bengals in week three.
San Francisco is the better team and they’ve been dominant in two straight wins. Unfortunately, those games came against two of the worst teams in football (Giants and Jets). They’re also incredibly banged up, and they’ll be hosting a desperate Eagles team.
Nfl Week 4 Best Bets Against The Spread
Philly is a pretty good upset pick here, but I don’t think we need to take on that risk. I just like them to keep this one close.
There is a ridiculous amount of very high game totals this week. Normally that’s a wager I feel pretty good about attacking, but not in week four.
Are games featuring the Cowboys, Saints, and Packers probably going to hit the Over? Yeah, maybe, but when you’re dealing with totals starting at 55.5 and going up to 58, it’s just not a situation I’d deem safe.
Instead, stick with the three bets above, which qualify as my favorite week 4 NFL locks. These are some of the safest bets to target in week four, and should be part of a condensed betting slate if you want to profit this week.
Whatever you do, I wish you luck. Thanks for stopping by, and enjoy the games!
The NFL is back and we have coverage for every game, handing out free top NFL picks and odds analysis as always. We were able to hit big wins in the first three weeks, and Week 4 has some juicy lines for us to take on for parlay combinations. We have a couple of juicy line-busting parlays to line your pockets with.
Midwest Madness
Colts vs. Bears / Saints vs. Lions
Nfl Week Four Best Bets
The first parlay we’re going to attack sees two modest lines for clearly better teams hitting the road. While it’s difficult to trust certain teams on the road in cooler weather, there’s certain coaching mismatches that must be trusted when it comes to betting. These two games fit the criteria perfectly.
The Colts have a clearly better overall team than the Bears even as Nick Foles takes over for bust Mitchell Trubisky. The two-point line is proper respect for the Colts and the revitalized Philip Rivers, but I see value here because I don’t foresee Frank Reich getting outcoached by Matt Nagy. The totality of the situation looks like a good play for the Colts.
Then we see Sean Payton against Matt Patricia in a massive mismatch. Alvin Kamara has been unstoppable in recent games and there’s not a single defender capable of slowing him on the Lions defense. The Lions are still a freefall candidate even after their shocking win against Arizona last week.
Fears of Drew Brees struggling on the road aren’t quite as large because the game is inside. The Lions’ offense can be troublesome now that Adrian Peterson has taken control of the backfield, but the Saints should be one-touchdown better even on the road considering their roster quality.
Best Picks Nfl Week 6
Parlay:
NFC Contenders
Seahawks vs. Dolphins / Browns vs. Cowboys
It’s scary to bet on West Coast teams coming East for an early game, but my goodness the Seahawks’ offense makes it hard to resist taking them against a bad Miami team. Sure, the Dolphins took care of business last week against the fellow lowly Jaguars, but don’t be confused: this Dolphins team is far off from real contention due to their lack of playmakers.
The Seahawks’ secondary is banged up and hasn’t played as well as their talent indicates they should, so this game will likely be right around the 6.5 spread. The Seahawks should win by more as Russell Wilson tries to keep up with Patrick Mahomes’ MVP bid.
The other game to pair with it is a fascinating matchup between fan bases that talk a lot of trash but have underachieving teams. Both Cleveland and Dallas have talented rosters that should be in the playoffs but there’s a sense of uneasiness every week for both franchises even with new coaches. Is this the week both play up to their competition and come out with a key victory?
I think we know enough about Baker Mayfield and the Browns to say he’ll likely not play well against a good team based on his past struggles. At least Dak Prescott plays well in big games, and that’ll be the difference as they play at home.
Parlay:
Destroy Bad Teams
Ravens vs. Washington / Giants vs. Rams
Taking two-score lines is a scary proposition but some teams match up in a way where we can’t ignore the favorite. That’s the case this week as Baltimore and the Los Angeles Rams will destroy their competition to embarrassing levels. The rosters are heavily skewed one way and the stylistic matchup couldn’t be much worse for neither Washington nor the Giants.
Washington loves to throw despite Dwayne Haskins’ lack of surrounding cast and struggles within the pocket, and the Ravens are coming off a humiliating performance where the secondary was exploited. The Ravens will be ballhawking and motivated to bounce back in a big way. Also there’s the Lamar Jackson revenge game we’re sure to see as he failed to break 100 yards passing against the Chiefs.
The Rams will also have a field day against the Giants thanks to schematic advantages. The Giants are one of the worst play-action defending teams in the league and they’re facing a top-three offense in that category. Jared Goff has been excellent this year, and his surrounding receivers are a nightmare matchup for the barren secondary of the Giants.
It’ll be a long day as Aaron Donald and Leonard Floyd try to force more mistakes out of Daniel Jones.
Parlay: